The Influence of Exchange Rate per US Dollar on the Balance of Payments in Indonesia During the Period of 2008 I-2014 IV

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate per US dollar on the balance of payments in Indonesia during the first quarter of 2008 until the fourth quarter of 2014 in the short term and long term. The source of data comes from BI (Bank Indonesia), BPS, Journals, Books, and associated researches. The analytical method used in this study is an Error Correction Model (ECM) based on data time series in the first quarter period of 2008 - the fourth quarter of 2014. From the results of short-term estimates, it is indicated that the variable of exchange rate negatively affects the balance of payments with the value of coefficient -0.077. In the long term, it indicates a more significant effect on balance of payments with the value of coefficient -0.170. It is proved that when the exchange rate changes, there is significant effect on the balance of payments in the long term.